There are millions of people that follow the evolution of the financial markets daily. All of them, without exception, are interested in having a clear opinion about what will happen in the stock exchange. They ask persistently, will the S&P500 index rise or will fall tomorrow? And the EUROSTOXX, the IBEX, the IPC or what about the BOVESPA? and the BITCOIN?
In the media it is possible to find many opinions given by individuals and entities with prestige but either they do not answer the question asked above or they do it with the lack of the required clarity and precision.
Generally, we find ambiguous forecasts, or they are given for the medium or long term, not for tomorrow. Others are conditioned to the evolution of other variables such as interest rates or the GDP, or big indices like DOW JONES. In addition, there are other opinions that are vague or ambiguous and when finally a clear opinion is given, generally there is not a follow-up to contrast its success or lack thereof.
In summary: the demand of information about what will happen tomorrow in the financial markets is unsatisfied.
There are some solution for this problem:
- Come up with an expert’s or a group of experts’ opinion, professionals or financial institution advisors.
- Create a prediction game, “Tomorrowmarkets,” which allows everyone to participate and aggregates their opinions to create a forecast.
We propose the second solution, where, of course, experts who wish to participate are invited.
In this game, Tomorrowmarkets the forecast is Collective, Democratic and Selective.
The idea that its Collective and Democratic, comes from an area of currently very active area of research in social and computer science. Nowadays, it is a ground-breaking area called Collective Intelligence.
An example from the Collective Intelligence power is the ox of Galton. In 1906 the statistician Sir Francis Galton went to a cattle fair where there was a contest for guessing how heavy an ox is. Almost 100 individuals participated, and the winner was; the average of all the forecasts! Which in addition turned out to be a very accurate prediction of the weight.
James Surowiecki author of the bestseller “The Wisdom of crowds” says “large groups are smarter than the elite, regardless of how brightt this minority may be, when it comes to solve problems, fostering innovation, reach prudent decisions, and even forecast the future”
The idea of extracting a Selective opinion from a collective, those with a special ability in predicting, comes from biology- only the best ones survive-. These criteria also rules in the trading desks of large investment banks.
Tomorrowmarkets is going to test the power of this new idea -Selective Collective Intelligence- forecasting Bitcoin and world stock market indices every day.