Welcome to Tomorrowmarkets
1. The idea

There are millions of people that follow the evolution of the financial markets daily. All of them, without exception, are interested in having a clear opinion about what will happen in the stock exchange. They ask persistently, will the S&P500 index rise or will fall tomorrow? And the EUROSTOXX, the IBEX, the IPC or what about the BOVESPA? and the BITCOIN?

In the media it is possible to find many opinions given by individuals and entities with prestige but either they do not answer the question asked above or they do it with the lack of the required clarity and precision.

Generally, we find ambiguous forecasts, or they are given for the medium or long term, not for tomorrow. Others are conditioned to the evolution of other variables such as interest rates or the GDP, or big indices like DOW JONES. In addition, there are other opinions that are vague or ambiguous and when finally a clear opinion is given, generally there is not a follow-up to contrast its success or lack thereof.

In summary: the demand of information about what will happen tomorrow in the financial markets is unsatisfied.

There are some solution for this problem:

  1. Come up with an expert’s or a group of experts’ opinion, professionals or financial institution advisors.
  2. Create a prediction game, “Tomorrowmarkets,” which allows everyone to participate and aggregates their opinions to create a forecast.

We propose the second solution, where, of course, experts who wish to participate are invited.

In this game, Tomorrowmarkets the forecast is Collective, Democratic and Selective.

The idea that its Collective and Democratic, comes from an area of currently very active area of research in social and computer science. Nowadays, it is a ground-breaking area called Collective Intelligence.

An example from the Collective Intelligence power is the ox of Galton. In 1906 the statistician Sir Francis Galton went to a cattle fair where there was a contest for guessing how heavy an ox is. Almost 100 individuals participated, and the winner was; the average of all the forecasts! Which in addition turned out to be a very accurate prediction of the weight.

James Surowiecki author of the bestseller “The Wisdom of crowds” says “large groups are smarter than the elite, regardless of how brightt this minority may be, when it comes to solve problems, fostering innovation, reach prudent decisions, and even forecast the future”

The idea of extracting a Selective opinion from a collective, those with a special ability in predicting, comes from biology- only the best ones survive-. These criteria also rules in the trading desks of large investment banks.

Tomorrowmarkets is going to test the power of this new idea -Selective Collective Intelligence- forecasting Bitcoin and world stock market indices every day.

2. Indices

With all the participants opinions we built two indices: Towin (top 10) and Tow (all)

Tomorrowmarkets indices

The Tomorrowmarkets indices are daily forecasts of financial markets. Towin is based on the power of Selective Collective Intelligence and Tow on the Collective Intelligence.



How do we build the indices?

If the participants succeed, that is, if 55% or more of the participants predict the index will go down or up and this is what the index really does, the Towin or Tow index will rise by the same amount the market goes up or goes down.

If the participants fail, the Towin or Tow index will fall the same as the market goes up or goes down.




The Towin Bovespa Brazil index is 107.98. This index is successful by more than 8%.

The Towin Hsce China index is 93.89. This index is failing by more than 6%.

The evolution of these indices answer, in a final way, the question: Can we forecast the stock market, yes or no? If so, with what certainty can we do it?

3. How to play?

Who can participate?
The game is available for everybody over 18 years of age.

Complete the registration form in the web page or log in directly through



Game start date
On October 10 , 2018.
You can sign up any time, even once the game has begun. In this case, your initial index will be the average index of all the players in that market at that time.

Final date and award Tomorrowmarkets does not end, but at the 100 days -1 March 2019- the participant with the highest index in any of the markets will receive a prize of 3,000 euros.

If there is a tie, the result of the next market with the highest index will be considered and if the tie persists a draw will be made.

Also, just for participating, there is a raffle with five prizes valued at 500 euros.

Collection of the prize. The organization will contact the winners and transfer the amount of the prize to their current account upon presentation of their ID and verification of the age requirement -being over 18 years of age on the start date of the game-

Why in 100 days? This is the minimum period of time required, according to the classical statistics to validate the conclusions of the game.

Perform
Log in the web page or in the App.

Click on the trading form (Bullish, Bearish or Out of market) and press GO.
Only one daily trade per market.
In My position you see your last opinion.
Trade the markets you like, the days you want.
All trades are made at the closing price, regardless of the time you sent the trading form.




Trading times: Up to 5 minutes before the closing of the Stock Exchanges.

Holiday: Stock Exchange calendar.

Investment: 50,000 euros in each market. Corresponds to a fixed number of assets that result from the integer value of the ratio between 50,000 euros and the value of the asset on the day of the start of the game and remains unchanged during the development of the same.

You can check the number of titles in

4. Classification

You can check the total ranking on internet and the market classification



where you can analyse how the top 10 obtain their results and appear -if you are logged in- your classification and completed name.



Participant: the two initials that make up the name and surname (in the case of existing participants with identical two initials the app will add a correlative number) and the full name of the user- if you are logged in-

Index: participant index, taking into account that predicting up or down is equivalent to buying or selling short a fixed amount of money, and the index computes the relative amount of money that the investor has compared to the beginning.

Numbers of trades: numbers of closed trades.

% of success: percentage of days being successful.

Average profit: average of the successful trades’ profits.

Average loss: average of the losing trades’ profits.

Ratio P/L: ratio average profit /average loss ratio.

5. For what to participate?
  • To answer, in an effective way the question: Can the stock market be predicted, yes or no?
  • To learn. The game is very similar to the real financial market, making it an excellent option to learn and train. Without any cost, the participants will learn for themselves, gaining valuable experiences, that they shouldn’t forget:
    1. The difficulty of forecasting financial markets in the short term. Usually, this type of learning is usually hard and cost a lot of money.
    2. The fact that to earn money in the financial market or in other activities with uncertainty (entrepreneur in the most general sense), it is not necessary to guess right more than 50% of the time. The important thing is that every time you hit it, you earn more than every time you fail (P / L ratio).
    3. The importance of the Collective Intelligence.
  • To promote your self professionally. In the case of professionals from the sector.
  • To win the prize of 3.000 euros.
  • To possibly win one of the 5 prizes drawn among all participants of 500 euros per draw.
  • If you are a university researcher and your students participate, you can access the individual data, duly anonymized, in order to carry out your own analyses.
6. For what to follow the game?
  • To follow the index if it succeeds or to do the opposite if it does not succeed In the case that the index oscillates around 100, it is not a predictor.
  • To follow the Top 10. Let's see how long they stay on top. If they rotate or not? If they fall, how long do they take to recover?
7. Success
  • Our starting hypothesis is that the Towin index will be able to forecast the stock market and the Bitcoin with a frequency close to 60%. If we are right, we will face something big, with an extraordinary potential, which does not exist anywhere in the world.
  • Participants learn by themselves, experimenting.
  • There may be some participant(s) with the ability to succeed, if that is true, we will be in front of a great professional, with extraordinary potential.